After a fall for the first time in nine years, why has the number of newborns in South Korea increased?
South Korea’s low birth rate appears to be seeing a ray of hope.
Just weeks after announcing its entry into a “population emergency” in June 2024, South Korea has witnessed a nine-year growth in newborn numbers at the end of the year, with 242,300 births in 2024, an increase of 12,300 compared to 2023.
Does this signify a turning point in the country’s declining birth rate?
Is the rise in new births attributed to the desire to have a “dragon baby”?
Over the past decade, except for Sejong, all 16 provincial regions in South Korea have seen a decline in newborn numbers. However, in 2024, seven regions including Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, and Chungcheongnam-do have achieved positive growth compared to 2023. Among them, Seoul has the highest increase with 1,060 more births in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the same period in previous years.
South Korea had the lowest fertility rate in the world in 2023, with a total fertility rate of just 0.72. Seoul is even considered the “fertility valley” with a total fertility rate of just 0.55 in 2023, which means that on average, each woman has only 0.55 children during her reproductive years. According to academic definitions, a total fertility rate of at least 2.1 is necessary to maintain population replacement levels.
Experts have various analyses on the rebound of newborn numbers in South Korea.
The staff from the Korean Statistics Office’s population trend section, Lin Yingyi, pointed out that the main reason for the recent increase in newborn numbers is the rebound of suppressed marriage demand during the pandemic, leading to an increase in marriages for eight consecutive months since August 2022. Considering that “the average time from marriage to the birth of the first child in South Korea is 2.45 years, the marriage wave in 2022 can be linked to the current rebound in newborn numbers.” This was reported by The Times Weekly.
Another theory suggests that the rebound is also influenced by the preference for dragon year birth. Many South Korean families, influenced by traditional Chinese culture, believe that giving birth in a dragon year brings good luck and blessings to their children and they want to have a “dragon baby”.
However, it is worth noting that similar rumors also exist in China. However, as early as 2010, Ma Yan, a Ph.D. candidate at Renmin University of China’s population and development research center based her research on birth numbers from 1949 to 2008 and found that the theory of animal sign preference is not reliable as most Chinese people do not consciously choose a specific animal sign for their child’s birth time.
Despite the rise in newborn numbers in South Korea, it remains a challenge to maintain sustainable growth. Mr. Kim, who is about to graduate with a Ph.D. from Seoul University in 2024, stated that he is currently looking for a job and feels uncertain about getting married and having children due to high housing prices in Seoul. The cost of raising children is also a major concern for young South Koreans. A survey by the Korean Statistics Office in 2022 revealed that the total amount spent on extracurricular training in South Korea is nearly 26 trillion Korean won (approximately RMB 130.5 billion).
Scholars such as Kim Zhengen (音译) have pointed out that parents’ general mentality of keeping up with others in education investment leads to higher spending on their children’s education. For example, if their neighbors’ children attend expensive additional tutoring classes, parents may feel compelled to send their own children as well or even opt for more expensive and advanced courses. If this factor is excluded, South Korea’s fertility rate could increase by 28%, according to Kim Zhengen’s research paper titled “Status Externalities in Education and Low Fertility Rate.”
The rise in new births could also be attributed to financial incentives for childbirth in South Korea. From extending female maternity leave and introducing male parental leave to优先晋升有两个以上子女的公务员，韩国在生育相关的补贴与福利政策上下足了功夫。
In 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol mentioned at a meeting of the Committee on Aging Society with Low Fertility Rate that the government had invested approximately 28 trillion Korean won (approximately RMB 1.5 trillion) – a “huge sum” – to address the low fertility rate issue.
Local governments in South Korea are also implementing subsidy support for childbirth. On December 19th, 202
