World in 2025 | The Trump phenomenon is not an episode, reshaping America will bring greater shock
On January 10th, the Fudan Institute for International Studies released the “Shock and Remodeling: Fudan International Strategy Report 2024”. Professor Wu Xinbo, director of the Fudan Institute for International Studies and director of the US Studies Center, pointed out in the preface of the report that the most prominent feature of the international situation in 2024 is the resonance between domestic politics and geopolitics. Although there have been many unexpected changes in this global super election year, and geopolitical conflicts are also escalating, 2024 is not all bad news. The global south is taking advantage of the situation, and the BRICS mechanism, as an important platform for global south cooperation, has also added a number of partner countries, and the transformation of the international system is accelerating. In 2025, the world will face more uncertainty, while China needs to bring more certainty to the world.
The paper (www.thepaper.cn) has published the series of “World in 2025” today, selecting some articles from the report to review the world in shock and remodeling, and looking forward to the road ahead in 2025.
On January 10th, the Fudan Institute for International Studies released the Fudan Think Tank report “Shock and Remodeling: Fudan International Strategy Report 2024”.
In 2024, the U.S. presidential election is full of twists and turns, with Biden’s defeat and Trump’s strong comeback, and U.S. politics undergoing a reshuffle. The United States has failed to achieve its goals in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, highlighting the limitations of the Biden administration’s strategic and diplomatic capabilities. China and the United States have maintained the overall stability of their relations during intense competition, but they will face another uncertain four years with Trump’s election.
The Unusual Election
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is not only the most globally watched election this year but also a rare spectacle in U.S. history. First, Trump’s campaign road is full of dangers. He was convicted of 34 crimes due to a “gag order” in May, almost survived an assassination attempt in July, but still managed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately win the election. This makes him the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted, the first person elected president while wearing a guilty hat, and the second person who failed to win re-election but was elected again after completing his first term.
Second, Biden had to withdraw from the election despite winning the Democratic nomination for president. Although Biden easily won the Democratic nomination for president, he was rejected by voters due to his old age and had to withdraw from the election under strong internal party pressure, leaving Vice President Harris to rush onto the stage. It is unprecedented for an incumbent president to win the party’s nomination but have to abandon the race in the middle of an election year.
Thirdly, Musk played a prominent role in this election as well. It is common for business giants in America to influence elections through funding, but they mostly invest on both sides of the political spectrum and avoid coming forward. Musk is different; he not only invested heavily in Trump’s campaign but also actively cheered for Trump, shocking many people. “Musk supporting Trump” has become a strange landscape line of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Although Musk took a big political risk, he also reaped huge political and economic dividends from Trump’s victory, gaining significant influence during Trump’s second term.
Trump’s strong comeback indicates that the “Trump phenomenon” is not a fleeting episode but an important trend shaping U.S. politics, economy, society, and culture. Trump’s rise and comeback carry triple missions. First, to transform the Republican Party to reflect Trump’s preferences in terms of ideology and organization. With Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination again and leading the Republicans to take control of the White House and Congress, the MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement has become the dominant ideology and base of the Republican Party, with establishmentarians either exiting or being marginalized. The old party has transformed into a Trump-style party.
Second, to comprehensively promote Trumpism and leave his political legacy on U.S. internal and foreign policies during his first term. Trump attempted to make a series of important adjustments to U.S. internal and foreign policies during his first term but had limited success due to various factors such as political resistance and institutional constraints. After Biden came to power, he cleared Trump’s legacy, which means that during his second term, Trump will definitely intensify his efforts to implement Trumpism and leave his political legacy.
Thirdly, to build a Trump system and make major changes to the structure and operation of the federal government so that it becomes a reliable organizational
